The Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet this year, but that may soon change. A low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm and, according to recent forecast modeling, has a decent chance of reaching hurricane strength. If it does, it would be the first hurricane of the season—a notable milestone, since no modern Atlantic season has gone this late without one forming.
The quiet conditions are largely attributed to a strengthening El Niño, which typically produces high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and disrupts storm organization. The developing system faces dry air and shear to its north, but a track that skirts eastward could allow it to traverse unusually warm Gulf waters between 28° and 30° C, giving it a couple of days to organize and intensify.
Most model guidance suggests a landfall between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday or Saturday. Heavy rainfall is certain, but the threat from sustained winds and storm surge depends on how well the system consolidates. Until a well-defined center of circulation forms, significant uncertainty remains about its eventual strength.