A wave of suspected Russian drone attacks on cargo ships in the Black Sea is rattling commercial shipping and Ukraine's grain trade. On October 13, a Malta-flagged freighter operated by Ukraine was struck by three aerial drones near Bulgaria, forcing the evacuation of all 15 crew, while a Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship sank with 11 crew still missing. These incidents are part of a broader pattern: five ships have been attacked in the exclusive economic zones of NATO member countries since October 5, including earlier strikes that sank a Togo-flagged vessel and set a Palau-flagged ship afire, leaving 10 crew presumed dead.
While there is no hard proof the attacks originated from Russia, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told the Russian ambassador that the strikes favor Russia's interests and make no sense for Ukraine. In response, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey have asked NATO to redeploy counter-drone defenses to the region. Bulgaria has also joined NATO's Drone Edge initiative, a five-year, $40 billion effort to develop counter-drone capabilities, and the three countries are cooperating on a freedom-of-navigation plan to present to the EU.
The disruption is especially significant for Ukraine's agricultural exports, which rely on Black Sea shipping for over 90% of grain shipments. Some cargo is already being rerouted overland or through the River Danube. The attacks are part of a wider wave of suspected Russian hybrid warfare, including an attempted drone attack on a cargo aircraft in Germany and a drone boat found near a Romanian offshore gas platform, and they are likely to accelerate naval cooperation among NATO members in the region.