The US power sector is shifting back toward fossil fuels, according to a new report from the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy. Fossil fuel projects accounted for 30 percent of new capacity in development by the second quarter of 2026, up from just 5 percent in 2024. If that trend continues, the report warns, fossil fuels could make up 70 percent of the development pipeline by the end of the decade.
Planned fossil capacity now stands at 68 gigawatts by 2030, a 45 percent jump from plans six months earlier. The authors say those projects could lock in higher pollution and electricity prices for decades. The shift comes as data centers, factories, and electric vehicles push electricity demand up faster than at any point in more than a decade.
Renewables still have cost advantages: new utility-scale solar and wind average $68–$69 per megawatt-hour, compared with $90 for new combined-cycle gas plants. Yet renewable projects are being canceled at a faster rate than fossil fuel projects, 4.9 percent versus 2.9 percent. The Trump administration has blocked permits, issued stop-work orders, and removed tax incentives for wind and solar, while favoring gas for energy-hungry data centers. Electricity bills have already risen as utilities build new infrastructure.