Political violence ahead of the 2026 midterms is likely to come from mainstream voters rather than organized extremist groups, according to political scientist Robert A. Pape's research. Analyzing charges from the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack, he found 90% of defendants had no affiliation with militias or militant organizations. The people involved were often employed and professional: nearly 40% held white-collar jobs, 22% were business owners, and almost 30% had a college degree.
Pape argues that focusing on fringe militias misdiagnoses the danger. The real risk is that physical force has become accepted in the mainstream electorate, fueled by elite rhetoric that frames politics as an existential struggle. He calls the midterms an unprecedented stress test, warning that elections are dangerous potential flashpoints amid domestic instability and global conflict.
The January 6 attack crossed a democratic line, Pape says, showing that electoral outcomes can be challenged by crowds of citizens rather than ballots. The normalization of violent symbolism and the delegitimization of opponents are the warning signs. His data indicates the threat is not outside society but embedded within it.