Verifact Markets, a new startup, bills itself as a "prediction market for disputed facts." Instead of forecasting the future, users wager on whether past events actually occurred, such as the origin of Covid-19 or whether Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide. The company launched with backing from Positron Capital Management, the family office of tech investor Peter Wokwicz, who says he is excited because "nobody's done this before."
The platform lists markets for contested events and lets users trade "true" or "false" using stablecoins on-chain. Users can submit evidence for their positions, and the company says it will resolve markets when enough documentation exists; if it still cannot tell, it will "expire" the market and pay out based on its calculated odds. CEO Rodrigo Aquino says the markets themselves won't determine truth, but he declined to explain the company's "patent pending" research system, describing it only as "very mathematical, very quantitative" and "very secretive."
Verifact is currently offering its markets only to people outside the United States, as it is not a licensed exchange domestically. Wokwicz says he purchased a regulated financial exchange in the past year and intends to roll Verifact into it. The startup does not plan to charge fees at launch, and many details about how it will determine truth or make money remain unresolved.