According to WIRED, Trump White House aides have concluded that Republicans are unlikely to keep control of the House in the midterm elections. They are now focusing on preserving the Senate majority, which is seen as difficult but less hopeless than the House. The report cites three sources familiar with the situation and says the general expectation is that the House has become a lost cause.
The shift is visible in spending decisions. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, has canceled ad reservations in Democratic-held districts in Michigan and Ohio and in a Republican-held open seat in Nebraska, plus two reelection races in New Jersey and Iowa. Senate Republicans' campaign arm has also paused ad spending in North Carolina, mirroring pullbacks by other outside groups.
Trump aides believe the Senate is still in play because early mail ballot returns in key battleground states are comparable to 2024 presidential election levels. They also discuss a possible firewall of Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio. Trump is hitting the trail in states like Ohio and Alaska and will host a $1 million-per-plate fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago to replenish a war chest being emptied at an increasing rate.
The article notes that retreating from North Carolina would have been unthinkable just a few months ago, reflecting a worsening political climate. With 20 days until the election, the strategy is to maximize turnout from the MAGA base rather than persuade swing voters. A White House spokesperson said Trump is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both chambers, while an RNC spokesperson said the party is thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent.