Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25 pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Environmental observers view the election as a referendum on the Amazon, with climate scientist Carlos Nobre warning that a Bolsonaro win would increase deforestation and put the region in a very serious situation.
The two candidates' stated forest policies appear similar—Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030, while Bolsonaro promises zero illegal deforestation by 2029—but Bolsonaro's platform emphasizes streamlined environmental licensing to avoid blocking investment. Economist Monica de Bolle argues a Bolsonaro win would likely repeat his father's term, which saw enforcement dismantled, clearing increase, and carbon emissions in Amazonia nearly double in 2019–2020 compared to the 2010–2018 average.
Scientists estimate the Amazon's tipping point is between 20 and 28 percent cleared, with about 18 percent of the whole Amazon and 22 percent of the Brazilian Amazon already cleared. Researcher Nico Wunderling says a return to Jair Bolsonaro-era practices could clear about 1 percent of the basin's rainforest per term, reaching the danger zone by the middle or end of the 2030s, while Lula's net-zero pledge might avoid runaway feedback. The first-round results show Bolsonaro finished 2.2 million votes ahead, with Lula losing more support in agricultural municipalities, suggesting agribusiness interests are a key factor in the race.