Last year, the International Energy Agency forecast that global coal demand had plateaued and would begin declining. But the agency now projects coal consumption will climb to a record 8.94 billion metric tons in 2026. The reversal is blamed on the war in Iran, which choked off oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and triggered an energy crisis, leading many countries to turn to coal as a replacement.
Energy analysts caution against calling this a comeback. Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor says it's important to distinguish between a short-term bump and a genuine resurgence. Daan Walter of Ember describes the current rush as a "sugar rush," noting that coal investment has hit a 14-year high and companies are making what he calls reckless business plans—such as reopening a closed Alberta mine and proposals for new coal plants to power AI data centers in Queensland.
The same crisis is also pushing countries toward renewables, as oil and gas price shocks make wind and solar look more secure. With nearly every country having agreed to phase down coal at the Glasgow climate conference, the current spike may ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition rather than reverse it.