According to a new Environmental Defense Fund report, the U.S. power development pipeline has shifted: fossil generation is rebounding while clean energy additions are slowing from their 2024 peak. If dispatched as projected, fossil capacity could reach a market share not seen since the early 2010s. Planned natural gas capacity is now comparable to solar and wind on a capacity-factor basis, though clean energy still accounts for the largest share of planned development.
Federal policy changes and rapid load growth are driving the recalibration, including coal subsidies, repealed greenhouse gas regulations, rollback of clean energy tax credits, and permitting barriers. But gas deployment faces headwinds: turbine shortages and rising capital costs are making new plants more expensive and slower to build. A Wood Mackenzie analysis cited by EDF finds gas generation investment is entering a supply deficit cycle through the late 2030s, which could reinforce the long-term economic case for renewables and storage.
EDF warns that a fossil-heavy response to demand growth could raise consumer costs through fuel price volatility and capital cost inflation. An Energy Innovation analysis cited in the report estimates that a 2022-style coal and gas price spike would add $40.5 billion per year to electricity costs under a fossil-heavy scenario. Fossil project cancellations have declined while clean energy cancellations have risen, and emergency orders have kept some coal plants operating past retirement dates.
A pending Senate bill, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, would speed permitting and limit permit revocations, drawing support from some groups and criticism from the Sierra Club. EDF says it is still reviewing the bill's impact. On the Iran war and fuel crisis, EDF's David Villagrana said the immediate pressure has been on gasoline and diesel, not U.S. natural gas, but a prolonged crisis would underscore the risks of relying on volatile fuel prices for decades.