Heat pumps and electric water heaters continue to gain ground in the U.S. market, according to new data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Heat pump shipments rose 17.6% in July, reaching close to half of all HVAC units shipped and trailing only July 2024 for the month. Electric water heaters also outsold gas units by roughly 52,000 units, though their shipments dipped 3.9% year over year. Over the longer term, electric water heater shipments are up 23% since July 2016, while heat pump shipments have grown about 77% in that period.
A separate report from the Advanced Water Heating Initiative (AWHI) highlights improving commercial heat pump water heater technology, including new storage configurations and communication features that support load shifting. The market for smaller commercial units is expanding beyond multifamily buildings into commercial kitchens and other applications. However, heat pump water heaters lost their federal tax credits at the end of 2025, which immediately reduced demand. AWHI says new building codes and all-electric mandates in states like New York should help keep sales growing.
Despite the electrification trend, gas equipment remains a significant part of the market. Gas furnace shipments increased 60% since July 2010 and 15.3% since July 2016, making this year the fourth-highest July total on record. As ACHR News put it, "Heat pumps are clearly gaining ground, but gas furnaces remain a steadfast category." The single source article draws on multiple reports, all pointing to steady electrification gains alongside continued reliance on gas heating equipment. No conflicting findings{