Two new analyses from Carbon Brief highlight contrasting forces that are keeping emissions in check. In India, a surge in clean energy has kept power-sector carbon dioxide emissions flat for two consecutive years, with no growth recorded. That suggests the country's rapid electricity demand growth is being met increasingly by renewables rather than fossil fuels.
At the global level, a separate analysis projects that fossil-fuel emissions will fall by around 0.5% in 2026, in the fallout from the Hormuz crisis. Here the driver is not clean-energy policy but geopolitical disruption that is likely to curb fossil-fuel consumption.
The two analyses agree that emissions are being held down, but they differ on the cause. India's flat emissions reflect a structural shift toward cleaner power, while the global decline is tied to a specific geopolitical event. Together, they illustrate how both deliberate energy transitions and external shocks can shape the emissions outlook.