According to a Carbon Brief analysis, wildfires currently burning across Indonesia are on track to release as much carbon as the most severe fire year recorded so far in the 21st century. The fires are affecting large swathes of land, with emissions expected to reach a level that matches the existing record.
The analysis attributes the intensity of the season to El Niño, the climate pattern known to bring drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia. Those conditions create the kind of fuel and weather that allow fires to spread widely.
The finding suggests that 2026 could mark a repeat of a historic emissions peak, underscoring how natural climate variability can still drive major carbon releases from forests and peatlands.