The war in Iran is pulling the world's energy system in two directions at once, according to the International Energy Agency. Conflict-driven disruption is speeding up investment in clean energy, as countries seek to reduce reliance on volatile fossil fuel supplies. But the same crisis is also driving up coal use, creating a paradoxical outcome for the global energy transition.
The IEA had previously projected that global coal demand would fall this year. That forecast has now been reversed, with the agency expecting coal demand to grow instead. Canary Media's Chart of the Week highlights the shift, noting that the Iran war has simultaneously pushed countries toward cleaner power and back toward the dirtiest fuel.
The reversal underscores how geopolitical shocks can accelerate both halves of the energy transition at once. Short-term energy security concerns may force some countries to lean on coal, even as long-term climate goals push others toward renewables. The net effect, for now, is a world that is both greener and more coal-dependent than previously expected.