Carbon Brief's analysis finds that at least 20,000 square kilometres of Amazon forest have been spared since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in 2022. The figure comes from comparing actual deforestation with a modelled scenario in which Brazil's forest code was not enforced, used as a proxy for continued Bolsonaro-style governance.
Annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell from 11,594 sq km in 2022 to 5,731 sq km in 2025, with preliminary satellite data suggesting 2026 could see the lowest loss since records began in 1988. The reversal followed Lula's reinstatement of enforcement actions and the rollback of deregulation championed by his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
Researchers involved in the modelling stress that the estimate is likely conservative, because the baseline scenario assumes deforestation stays high but does not account for illegal clearing or wildcat mining that could have surged under a Bolsonaro victory. They also note that deforestation did not drop immediately after Lula's election, reflecting the gradual process of rebuilding enforcement.
The findings carry political weight as Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, whose environmental platform mirrors his father's, in an upcoming election with the two tied in the polls. The outcome is expected to shape Brazil's emissions trajectory, since deforestation is the country's largest source of greenhouse gases.