This year's Atlantic hurricane season has been eerily quiet. By late September, the Atlantic normally produces four hurricanes, two of them major, but so far not a single one has formed. According to Grist, the previous record for the latest first hurricane was September 11, making this year's inactivity unprecedented in satellite-era records.
The explanation is tied to an extreme El Niño in the Pacific. Sea surface temperatures there are more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal, with models suggesting they could reach around 4 degrees by November or December. That warmth is reshaping wind patterns, creating strong wind shear over the Atlantic. As Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami puts it, hurricanes do not like that kind of gusty, inconsistent wind, and dry, sinking air from El Niño makes conditions even worse.
While the Atlantic is suppressed, the Pacific is seeing the opposite effect. Hurricane Polo intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in under a day, an extreme example of rapid intensification fueled by unusually warm water. Another storm, Nolo, became a hurricane and could bring heavy rain to Hawaii. These outcomes are consistent with how climate change is increasing the fuel available for the strongest storms.
The broader consequences of this El Niño extend beyond storms. Scientists project that heat from the event could kill 451,000 people globally in its first nine months, and previous El Niños have triggered drought and crop failures in Southeast Asia, the Amazon, and parts of Africa. While the quiet Atlantic may seem like good news, the same climate driver is amplifying risks elsewhere.