The European Union’s ReFuelEU aviation fuel mandate has completed its first full year, and the initial data from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) shows the regulation is doing what it was designed to do. The 2025 report, published in September 2026, provides the first comprehensive snapshot of the EU sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market under the new rules. The mandate is working, but the next phase—the dedicated sub-mandate for synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF)—is already facing a critical policy fork.
Starting in 2030, jet fuel suppliers must blend a growing share of e-SAF, defined as fuel made from green hydrogen and captured CO2. That obligation has been known for years, yet most producers have not committed the capital needed to scale up. One proposal to ease the path is to allow e-HEFA—a synthetic fuel made from hydrogen and fats or oils—to count toward the e-SAF sub-mandate. The second source argues this would be a strategic mistake, because it would dilute the precise signal the mandate sends to investors in true power-to-liquid pathways.
Both sources agree that ReFuelEU’s first year proves the mandate mechanism works. They diverge on how to meet the 2030 e-SAF target: one calls for unlocking investment in genuine e-SAF, the other warns that broadening the definition would undercut the very purpose of the sub-mandate. The tension is real—scaling supply quickly versus preserving the technology-specific incentive. Europe’s next regulatory decision will determine whether the early success translates into a robust synthetic fuel industry or a loophole-riddled compromise.