Chinese chipmakers have amassed an estimated 343 immersion DUV lithography scanners from ASML between 2012 and early 2026, according to a report from the Centre for Technology & Statecraft (CTS). The Washington-based group argues that roughly 270 of these are NXT:1980i models, which can be used for 7nm-class chips through multipatterning even without EUV systems.
Tom's Hardware cautions that the CTS numbers are not independently verifiable from ASML's financial disclosures. If the estimate of 90 NXT:1980i purchases in 2024 and 89 in 2025 is correct, China would have taken about 70% and 68% of ASML's global ArFi shipments in those years. ASML's China sales share has since dropped to 19% in Q1 2026 and 14% in Q2.
Export controls have already tightened: Dutch rules restricted NXT:2000i and better systems in September 2023, then expanded to NXT:1980i in September 2024, though individual exports can still be approved. The report recommends banning all immersion DUV exports to China and restricting replacement parts and maintenance for advanced fabs, a position aligned with the MATCH Act introduced in April.