A new Gartner forecast, reported by The Register, predicts that 55% of enterprise VMware users will begin seriously exploring an exit from the platform by 2029. The figure points to a broad shift in sentiment among corporate IT teams, suggesting that dissatisfaction is no longer confined to a vocal minority but has become a mainstream consideration.
The same analysis pours cold water on the idea that a simple migration will solve everyone's problems. Gartner reportedly notes that the chasing pack of VMware alternatives has its own deficiencies, including immaturity, unexpected costs, and licensing terms that are difficult to navigate. These drawbacks could make the jump riskier and more expensive than it first appears.
The key nuance is that "investigating an exit" is not the same as completing one. Many of those 55% of users may ultimately decide to stay once they weigh the trade-offs. Still, the forecast signals that VMware's dominant position is no longer guaranteed and that vendors competing for its business will need to address more than just basic feature parity.