More than half of quantum computing startups will be out of business by 2030, according to Gartner, as an overcrowded market fails to generate enough commercial revenue. The analyst firm expects customers to reject technologies that don't achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing, leaving many of the estimated 200–300 startups without a path to profitability.
Despite the grim forecast, Gartner notes that enterprises are making initial investments, building expertise rather than waiting for the technology to mature. "The early quantum advantage era has arrived," said Gaurav Gupta, a Gartner VP analyst, pointing to noisy intermediate-scale quantum processors now able to handle limited complex tasks with improved error reduction.
The market remains small: Gartner forecasts $1.1 billion in worldwide quantum revenue in 2027, up from $869.9 million this year. The public sector is expected to lead spending initially, reaching $245 million in 2027, but banking, finance, and insurance firms will overtake it in 2028. The US Department of Energy recently launched a competition for a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2028, though the modest funding on offer makes that goal a long shot.