TrendForce's latest industry report sees global laptop shipments shrinking in 2027, driven less by component availability and more by weakening consumer demand. High prices for CPUs, DRAM, and SSDs have already pushed some customers to upgrade earlier than planned, which means fewer buyers will remain in the market next year. The firm expects shipments to decline by a low single-digit percentage in 2027 if manufacturers limit price increases, but warns the drop could reach the high-single-digit range if higher costs are passed on.
The rising cost of components is also reshaping where laptops are built. TrendForce projects the share of global notebook production outside China will fall from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 and potentially below 20% in 2027, as the manufacturing exodus slows. Higher costs abroad make relocating less attractive, even as manufacturers grapple with tight DRAM supply driven by AI demand and only a possible improvement in NAND flash availability in the second half of 2027.
For mainstream notebooks with a $900 manufacturer's suggested retail price, CPU, DRAM, and SSD are estimated to account for roughly 68% of the bill of materials in Q3 2026. TrendForce says manufacturers are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications, and profitability at the same time. They may adjust memory capacity or absorb some costs to protect demand, but that squeezes margins and could make products less competitive. The key question, the firm notes, is whether consumers will accept higher laptop prices. [Source: Tom's Hardware]