Satellite imagery tracked by SynMax and cited in a Jefferies report shows US datacenter construction is accelerating, but not fast enough to meet the most exuberant 2028 forecasts. Gross capacity is expected to rise from roughly 11 GW in 2025 to 16-18 GW in 2026, with a practical upper limit in the low 20s of gigawatts for 2027.
Advanced packaging is emerging as a key constraint. Even chips manufactured in the US may need to be sent overseas, typically to Taiwan, for packaging with high-bandwidth memory. Existing packaging capacity can support accelerators drawing about 13 GW of gross power, translating to roughly 17.5 GW of total datacenter power. Two additional packaging projects due in 2027 could add 6 GW, keeping the ceiling in the low 20s unless capacity expands faster.
The amount of land being cleared for new projects has plateaued, leaving visible activity well short of the pace needed to deliver the more than 80 GW implied by some announced pipelines. Development is concentrated in Texas and Virginia, making national figures vulnerable to delays in either state. In Texas, getting uninterrupted grid service can be slow, while accepting curtailment may connect a datacenter sooner.
A former developer told Jefferies that 99 percent uptime could be financially viable if curtailment were predictable enough to model and insure. But unpredictable five-minute curtailment under the Texas grid operator's dispatch system could break the economics. Datacenters can handle planned curtailment of an hour or two, but not an unexpected instruction on five minutes' notice.