On Lawfare's Rational Security podcast, Scott Anderson, Daniel Byman, Julia Curlee, and Michel Paradis discussed three national security stories. The first was President Trump's announcement of a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring more than 3 million tons of previously sanctioned Russian diesel onto U.S. and global markets. The move came after Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries forced Moscow to halt diesel exports, and after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeatedly refused U.S. demands to stop those strikes. Trump suggested the deal would lower prices for U.S. consumers, but the panel noted experts are doubtful.
The second topic was Yemen's civil war, which has escalated since a U.N.-brokered ceasefire collapsed. The Houthis have seized much of Yemen's Red Sea coast and targeted Saudi oil infrastructure, with missile strikes on Saudi airports killing at least 20 people. Trump has suggested the United States may join the fight in support of Saudi Arabia, while Iran has offered to mediate. The panel framed this as a possible new front in Iran's conflict with the United States.
The third topic was new U.S. sanctions against the International Criminal Court, announced hours after former ICC judge Navi Pillay received the Nobel Peace Prize. Unlike previous rounds targeting individuals, the new sanctions target the court as a whole, blocking its U.S. assets and barring Americans from providing funds, goods, or services. Rubio framed the choice as either the court ending its threats against the United States and Israel, or the United States ending the court. Several key U.S. allies objected, and the EU is weighing whether to deploy its "blocking statute" in response.