A new analysis from Medical Xpress suggests that the apparent rise in smokers' five-year mortality risk is explained by the aging of the smoking population. In 1987, a smoker had a 3.4% chance of dying within five years. By 2013, that figure had climbed to 4.9%.
The source attributes this increase not to cigarettes becoming more lethal, but to the fact that smokers today are older on average. As the smoking population ages, the baseline risk of death within five years naturally rises, even if the per-smoking health effect remains unchanged.
The report draws a clear distinction between a true worsening of smoking's dangers and a demographic shift. It does not claim that smoking is safer now, only that the rising mortality statistic is a reflection of who is smoking, not what smoking does.