A new report from Covista, a healthcare education company, predicts that the U.S. clinician shortage will nearly double by 2040 unless action is taken. The analysis, covered by Healthcare Dive, notes that over 108 million Americans already live in primary care provider shortage areas, and the problem is worsened by burnout and an aging workforce. Without intervention, the cost to patients could rise from $430 per year today to roughly $1,250 per person by 2040, driven by overtime pay, temporary staffing, and higher emergency department use.
The report outlines several mitigation strategies that together could close 92% of the projected workforce gap. Expanding training capacity by opening more medical education slots would address about a quarter of the shortfall, while investing in non-traditional students—such as adult learners and career changers—could add another 7%. Retaining existing clinicians, especially younger workers considering leaving, could also cut the gap by around 25%.
Technology plays a supporting role, but not a dominant one. AI tools that automate administrative work could close up to 37% of the projected shortage, yet the same tools may flag care gaps and improve access, leading to more appointments and adding to provider workloads—offsetting gains by roughly 18%. The report also emphasizes shifting from a “sick care” model to preventive care, which could reduce the shortage by 13% and ease strain on the workforce.
While the numbers are stark, the authors stress that people, not technology, must be the focus. “Technology can offer efficiencies; it can't do the job,” said Michael Betz, chief growth and innovation officer at Covista. If the gap is closed, the report projects a 20% reduction in specialist wait times, nearly 100,000 lives saved from solving the nursing shortage, and more than six months added to average life expectancy from closing the physician gap.