According to BioPharma Dive, citing Evaluate forecast data, more than $500B in worldwide prescription drug sales are potentially at risk from generic competition between 2026 and 2032. The exposure builds in waves rather than arriving as a single cliff: 2028 stands out with $99B at risk, and 2031 is the largest single-year spike at $158B.
Merck is the most exposed in the near term because Keytruda approaches patent expiry in 2028; the company has already won approval for a subcutaneous version of the drug. AbbVie's pressure comes later, with Evaluate estimating roughly $50B in one-year sales exposure in 2032 as Rinvoq and Skyrizi lose protection. J&J, Sanofi and AstraZeneca also face meaningful expiries in the late 2020s and early 2030s.
The forecast does not mean all at-risk revenue disappears, since geography, biosimilar timing and lifecycle strategies matter. Still, the numbers help explain recent dealmaking: since the start of 2024, Merck has announced $30.9B in deals, followed by Lilly at $27.2B, AbbVie at $22.3B, J&J at $20.4B, Sanofi at $16.1B and AstraZeneca at $6.8B.
The analysis here relies on one source, so no independent comparison is available.