In a STAT First Opinion essay, Joel Dodge, director of industrial policy and economic security at Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, argues that the Trump administration's potential changes to the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) could cause private vaccine makers to flee the U.S. market. The program has capped liability for manufacturers for four decades, but removing certain vaccines from it or adding autism as a compensable injury could create enormous legal exposure. Dodge notes that autism claims alone might reach $100 billion, far exceeding the program's $4 billion balance.
To prevent shortages, Dodge recommends that states create publicly owned vaccine factories, reviving a tradition exemplified by Massachusetts' MassBiologics, which has produced vaccines since 1894. State ownership would bring sovereign immunity, shielding facilities from lawsuits, while each state could establish a "mini-VICP" to provide capped compensation for rare injuries. States could also license formulations from private companies exiting the market.
Dodge acknowledges obstacles, such as private firms' reluctance to share proprietary vaccine formulas, but suggests strict nondisclosure agreements could ease licensing. The piece is a policy proposal rather than a report of actual state plans, and it does not indicate whether any state has taken steps toward such factories.