A secondary analysis of a prospective trial involving more than 800 children who visited emergency departments with acute gastroenteritis found that recent outdoor temperatures were inversely linked to the likelihood of a viral cause. For every 1-standard-deviation rise in average daily temperature over the prior two weeks, the odds of viral gastroenteritis fell by 50%, according to findings published in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. The association was especially pronounced in older children: those aged 12 and up were 83% less likely than those under 2 to have a viral infection when temperatures rose by that margin.
The researchers also validated the pattern using population-level surveillance data from Utah's GermWatch system, where higher monthly temperatures correlated with a lower proportion of viral cases. However, other weather and environmental factors—such as precipitation, humidity, and air pollution—showed no significant link to viral gastroenteritis risk. The authors suggest that weather-informed models could outperform season-based predictions, especially as climate patterns shift, though they noted the study's reliance on data from the continental U.S. and Utah may limit generalizability.
This was the only source provided, so no independent corroboration or conflicting findings were available. The study's short duration and regional focus were acknowledged as limitations, leaving room for further research on how weather variables might be integrated into clinical prediction tools.