Researchers at Florida State University tested an experimental hurricane forecast graphic that adds inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings to the traditional cone. Residents of Florida and Georgia who saw the revised map were better at identifying which inland areas were under watches. However, this improvement did not make them feel more personally at risk or more likely to plan protective actions.
The study, published in Weather, Climate, and Society, also confirmed a long-standing misunderstanding: many people interpret the width of the cone as the physical size of the storm rather than as a measure of track uncertainty. Lead author Elizabeth Ray noted that even with an updated graphic, this misconception is hard to shake.
The authors stress that the National Hurricane Center's forecasts themselves are highly accurate. The problem lies in communication. As co-author Patrick Merle put it, if people find the information credible but still do not understand it well enough to act, then the communication has fallen short. The researchers recommend pairing forecast graphics with local impact details rather than relying on the cone alone.