The second space race is underway, with the US and China both planning permanent bases on the moon. NASA, under Administrator Jared Isaacman, has announced ambitious plans for drones, robotic landers, communication satellites, and even a nuclear power plant. Initial astronaut missions are slated for 2028, with long-term habitats potentially arriving in the 2030s. China has near-identical plans, and the competition is fueled by the desire to define what the moon becomes—a militarized outpost, a manufacturing hub, or a preserved wilderness.
But the moon is a brutal environment. Daytime temperatures exceed 250°F, while nights can plunge below –200°F. The lunar south pole, targeted for its water ice, has craters that are among the coldest places in the known universe, dropping below –410°F. Astronauts would face carcinogenic radiation, meteoroid impacts, and corrosive volcanic dust that can destroy equipment. Building a base that is safe and somewhat self-sustaining will require using lunar resources and autonomous robots that can work without human presence, as experts note.
Despite the challenges, the moon is seen as a stepping stone for deeper space exploration. Its low gravity makes launches more energy-efficient, and its far side offers a pristine view for telescopes. As one ESA official puts it, the moon is critical for going to Mars and beyond. But the costs are enormous—tens of billions to start—and the question of acceptable risk looms. Whether these science-fiction-like visions become reality by 2100 remains uncertain.