A study published in the journal Climatic Change warns that climate change is endangering some of the world's most famous surf breaks, with serious implications for the communities and businesses that rely on surf tourism. Researchers analyzed 57 surf breaks across 11 of the 13 World Surfing Reserves in eight countries, drawing on input from nearly 200 local experts. They found that more than three-quarters of these breaks are at high risk due to rising sea levels, changing sediment movement, and hardened shorelines.
The economic stakes are significant. Surfing supports a multibillion-dollar global industry, and in many coastal areas it is a primary driver of year-round visitors. Adam Hall, cofounder of the North Devon World Surfing Reserve, noted that surfers fill pubs, restaurants, and car parks even in winter months, when other tourist destinations struggle. The study identifies at-risk waves including Croyde Beach in the UK, point breaks in Australia and El Salvador, and reefs in Santa Cruz, California.
A key finding is that natural coastlines are more adaptable to climate change, as they can shift inland and redistribute sediments. In contrast, development such as sea walls and jetties reduces resilience. The researchers suggest that surfers' intimate local knowledge could be tapped to help protect these waves, which they describe as a "canary in the coal mine" for beach health. They conclude that without action, climate change and coastal management will have significant negative impacts on the future viability of globally significant surf breaks and the local cultures and economies they support.