According to a new analysis from Harvard University's Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability, electric vehicles are expected to make up 32 percent of new car sales in the United States by 2030. That would be roughly four times today's level, a projection the researchers say holds despite the current administration's efforts to put roadblocks in the way of EV adoption.
The study's conclusion is notable because it suggests the US EV market is on a faster growth path than recent policy signals might indicate. The researchers reportedly see the quadrupling as a realistic outcome even with federal headwinds, implying that other factors are driving consumer and manufacturer momentum.
This is a single forecast from one research group, and the coverage does not detail the model's assumptions. Still, it provides a useful data point for the climate and energy debate, where the pace of the EV transition remains a contested question.