According to Carbon Brief, the UK government has conceded that aviation emissions in 2050 will be 50% higher than previously estimated. The admission comes as the government scales back its projections for electric aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels, which were once seen as key to decarbonising the sector.
The revised outlook suggests that current policies and technological expectations will not deliver the emissions reductions earlier hoped for. This adjustment precedes a likely decision on expanding airport capacity, making the new figures politically significant.
The report indicates that the government's own analysis now aligns with a more pessimistic view of the pace of innovation in aviation, a stark shift from earlier assumptions that cleaner technologies would play a major role by mid-century.