Both New Scientist and Carbon Brief report the same underlying UNEP assessment: the world can no longer avoid breaching the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target. The best case now is a temporary overshoot, not staying below. UNEP says the opportunity to meet 1.5C without overshoot has been lost.
The UNEP report, covered in detail by Carbon Brief, lays out what a minimal overshoot would require: emissions cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, plus carbon dioxide removal, with peak warming around 1.7-1.8C mid-century. Current pledges, even if fully implemented, would cut emissions by only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035. That is the central gap.
The sources agree on the headline conclusion, though New Scientist frames it as "1.5C is over" while Carbon Brief emphasises the "point of return" framing. Both note that the report still sees room to limit peak warming and shorten the overshoot, but the gap between ambition and action remains large. Emissions in 2025 were roughly flat, with the US a notable outlier due to rising coal use and electricity demand.