European mobile operators are taking a larger slice of smartphone sales, but not because they are selling more devices. According to Counterpoint Research, sales through operators fell 4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, while open-market sales — phones bought outright from independent retailers or manufacturers — declined 11 percent. That divergence lifted carriers' share of European smartphone sales from 35 percent to 36 percent.
The shift is tied to the AI-driven memory crisis. Shortages of DRAM and NAND flash have pushed up component prices, making budget devices commercially unviable. Operator channels skew toward higher-end models, and contracts spread handset costs over monthly payments, insulating carriers from the worst of the price pressure.
Apple overtook Samsung as the brand with the largest share of Europe's operator channel, with Motorola and vivo the fastest-growing in that segment. Counterpoint's Jan Stryjak said carriers are likely to keep gaining share for the next few quarters, though rising promotional activity by independent retailers could mitigate some of the price increases. He also noted that some buyers may turn to the second-hand market, which is forecast to grow 12 percent this year as new phones become less affordable. Separately, Counterpoint predicts 80 percent of premium smartphones will feature agentic AI by 2027, a trend that could further reshape the{