In a MedPage Today opinion essay, Steven Grossman and Michael Miller argue that the 2026 midterms are unlikely to rescue vaccines from existential threats. Even if the new Congress convening in January 2027 contains more pro-vaccine members, they write, federal and state regulatory and legislative actions will continue to undermine immunization policy. Sustained work from advocates will be necessary over the next two years and likely beyond 2029.
The authors credit vaccine advocates with modest 2026 gains: they raised awareness of the harms of anti-vaccine policies, formed informal coalitions, and coordinated opposition to changes at ACIP, HHS and FDA advisory bodies, and state efforts to expand vaccine exemptions. But they also note slippage. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. focused on less publicly salient topics such as vaccine injury research, while national attention shifted to wars, energy and food prices, a mild flu season, and measles outbreaks that drew only a muted federal response. The Make America Healthy Again movement also splintered politically.
Looking to 2027, the authors predict that expanded congressional support will be offset by an aggressive executive branch. They point to President Trump's embrace of unitary executive authority and his administration's willingness to ignore congressional oversight and court rulings. With Kennedy expected to remain in his post and the White House no longer facing voters, the authors anticipate a wave of new and revived anti-vaccine policies — and say vaccines are likely to be a central target.