In 1960, the journal Science published an article titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026." Cybernetics expert Heinz von Foerster and two students argued that human population growth could accelerate beyond exponential rates, approaching infinity on that date and effectively annihilating humanity. The claim drew wide public attention and, unusually, sustained scientific scrutiny.
The model's projections proved surprisingly accurate for decades, outperforming most demographers through the 1970s and 1980s. But around 1993, the global population began to fall behind the forecasts, because birth rates declined sharply. Today the global birth rate is slightly less than half of what it was in 1960, so the predicted doomsday is not expected to arrive.
The source notes that von Foerster had once been a stage magician, and the article blended rigorous mathematics with an extraordinary title and conclusion. The lesson, it suggests, is that even convincing scientific models can fail when human behavior changes, and that presentation can shape how seriously a prediction is taken.