A new analysis warns that the ongoing El Niño, already among the strongest on record, could drive temperatures high enough to cause an estimated 450,000 extra deaths worldwide by February. The figure represents deaths above the usual baseline, directly tied to heat exposure during the event.
The researchers behind the estimate stress that this outcome is not inevitable. They argue that swift action—such as early warning systems, cooling centers, and public health campaigns—could substantially reduce the toll. Without such measures, the death count may climb even higher in the months that follow.
The projection is based on historical data linking El Niño intensity to mortality, but the authors note that the current event's severity makes this an unprecedented challenge. The study's findings highlight the urgent need for preparedness as global temperatures continue to rise.