No amount of lead in a child’s blood is considered safe, but neighborhood-level data on exposure are sparse. A new study in GeoHealth addresses this gap by computing a lead exposure risk score for every U.S. census tract and county. The method relies on two well-established predictors from EPA research: the age of the local housing stock and the poverty rate. Older homes are more likely to contain lead paint, while lower-income areas often lack funds for remediation.
The author updated this approach with 2018–2022 American Community Survey data and compared the resulting risk scores against actual blood lead levels from children in 11 states. Across all states tested, the relationship between predicted risk and measured blood lead levels was positive. Correlations varied: Wisconsin had the strongest association (0.64) among states with tract-level data, while Minnesota had the weakest (0.43). Among states with county-level data, New Jersey led (0.77) and New York trailed (0.48). Michigan and Ohio served as consistency checks because their data came from the earlier EPA research.
The map is not a substitute for testing a home, and the author notes that all 11 validation states are older-housing states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Great Plains. That means the map’s low-risk predictions for the West and Sun Belt have not yet been verified. Still, the tool could help guide blood testing, home inspections, and outreach to neighborhoods where children face the greatest risk.