Wall Street is unusually divided over Tesla's third-quarter delivery numbers, due out Friday. According to Electrek, published estimates from six major firms range from Cantor Fitzgerald's 421,758 to JPMorgan's 482,000, a spread of about 60,000 vehicles. The median sits near 458,000, while the Visible Alpha consensus is between 449,000 and 454,000 and Bloomberg's is 466,000. Prediction markets are more bullish, with Kalshi contracts in the low-to-mid 470,000s.
Every one of these estimates would represent a year-over-year decline. Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025, boosted by US buyers rushing to claim the $7,500 federal tax credit before it expired. Even the highest current estimate would be down 3%, while the median implies an 8% drop and Cantor's figure a 15% fall. Sequentially, most estimates also point down from the 480,126 delivered in Q2, with only JPMorgan expecting growth.
Analysts have been cutting their numbers over the past two weeks, citing weak August sales in Tesla's two largest markets. US sales fell 26% year-over-year to about 40,816 units, and China retail sales dropped 12.4% to 50,047 units. The source notes that the Street has a poor recent track record here: Tesla beat its own Q2 consensus by 74,000 units, and prediction-market traders landed almost exactly on the actual number.