On his first day in office, Trump declared a national energy emergency, blaming the previous administration for inadequate energy resources and high prices. Nearly two years later, the U.S. does face high fuel prices, but the source is not the one he described. The war in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and destroyed refineries and oil fields, reducing global supplies of gasoline and diesel.

The emergency powers have not helped. Trump has used them to push fossil fuel projects and keep coal plants open, but oil and gas production were already near record highs, and the interventions have not moved consumer prices. In Michigan, keeping the J.H. Campbell coal plant running has cost Midwest ratepayers almost $300 million on net, even though the plant generates far less power than before. In Colorado, a utility was forced to keep operating a broken coal plant it had planned to retire.

Courts have started to push back. In September, an appellate court blocked the Department of Energy's order to keep the Michigan plant open, rejecting the administration's reading of the law and calling its emergency claim "unpersuasive." Analysts say the only meaningful step to bring prices down would be ending the war in Iran; otherwise, there is little the executive branch can do.